控制油价，特朗普有一套
Trump Has His Own Playbook for Oil Prices
WTI原油，一天跌了5.5%。
跌到98.47美元/桶。消息面上没有什么突发供应中断，OPEC也没有宣布增产。唯一发生的事情，是特朗普在记者面前说了一句话：「美伊谈判已进入最终阶段。」
能源专家看着这一幕，叹了口气，说出一句耐人寻味的话：「你可以怎么评价美国总统唐纳德·特朗普，但要承认，他真的很擅长说服石油市场。」
擅长，是一种委婉的说法。
一句话，5.5%
理解这件事，先要搞清楚「美伊冲突」和「霍尔木兹海峡」之间的关系。
全球约五分之一的石油，要穿过霍尔木兹海峡这条水道。伊朗就卡在这条峡湾旁边。每当美伊关系剑拔弩张，石油交易员的第一反应是：峡湾会不会被封锁？供应会不会中断？价格立刻上涨。反过来，只要有和谈信号，价格就往下走。
这个逻辑本来没什么问题。问题在于，特朗普已经把「最终阶段」这个词重复说了好几天了。
市场有人当真，跟着买了；也有人冷笑，「这句话他说了多少次了？」对冲基金的空头头寸已经升至10年来的最高位——换句话说，专业玩家其实在赌这场戏还要再演很久。
但油价还是跌了5.5%。那一天，有26艘船通过了霍尔木兹海峡，比平时多，说明供应恐慌正在消退。
特朗普没有增加一桶石油的实际产量，只是动了动嘴。
他为什么要压低油价？
2026年的美国，通胀是拜登留下的一个烫手山芋，也是特朗普执政合法性的最大威胁。
石油价格和通胀之间的关系，前几篇已经讲过。简单说：油价涨，汽油贵，运输贵，什么都贵，通胀数字上去，支持率下来。
所以对特朗普来说，压低油价不只是经济政策，是政治生存。
但问题是，他能用的牌并不多。
OPEC不鸟他。沙特王储早就算过了，油价高，他们赚得多，为什么要听华盛顿的？美国的页岩油商也不配合——上一篇已经说过，他们宁愿落袋为安，分红回购，也不愿意大规模增产。拜登去沙特碰了一鼻子灰，拜登的继任者面对的是同一堵墙。
那么，在实际产量增不上去的情况下，还能怎么办？
操纵预期。
地缘政治，是最便宜的增产工具
石油期货市场有个特点：它交易的不只是今天的石油，而是对「未来供应」的判断。只要让市场相信战争风险在下降，油价就会跌，不需要真的多出一桶油。
3月底，特朗普宣布延迟对伊朗的军事打击。那一天，油价和美债价格同时上涨——市场松了口气，避险情绪降温。
5月，特朗普再次放出「谈判进入最终阶段」，WTI单日暴跌5.5%。
前后两次操作，没有任何实质性的产量变化，油价却被反复拉低。这就是「说服市场」的本质：用外交叙事代替真实供应，以最低成本完成一次「隐性增产」。
但内塔尼亚胡不同意
事情还没完。特朗普在压油价、找出路，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡却在另一个方向用力。
两人5月20日进行了一次「激烈的通话」。分歧很简单：特朗普想谈核协议，尽快结束这场烧钱的冲突；内塔尼亚胡想重启对伊朗的军事行动，因为对以色列来说，伊朗是存亡威胁，谈判是绥靖。
特朗普事后对记者说：「内塔尼亚胡在伊朗问题上会听我的。」
话是这么说的。但伊朗外交部的表态是：德黑兰将「带着强烈而有充分理由的不信任」继续谈判。伊朗要的是解冻海外资产、停止对其船只的「海上骚扰」、结束地区冲突。这三条，任何一条没有实质让步，谈判就随时可以破裂。
一旦破裂，霍尔木兹的风险卷土重来，油价重新飙升。特朗普用嘴压下去的东西，可能需要用更大的代价才能再次压住。
这一套能维持多久？
市场已经开始打折扣了。对冲基金的空头头寸处于10年高位，意味着专业投资者在下注：「这场戏演不长。」
从数据看，当天美债10年期收益率只下跌了9个基点，美联储的鹰派会议纪要把2026年的加息预期锁定在75%左右——债市的通胀担忧并没有因为油价一天的下跌而消散。
能源专家的判断是：「若无实质性协议落地，油价的压制窗口最多维持数周。」
换句话说，特朗普的嘴可以快于市场，但不能一直快于现实。
石油价格不是市场问题，是政治问题——这一点，前几篇已经说了。
特朗普只是把这个逻辑用得比任何人都更赤裸。他不需要增加一桶石油，只需要让市场相信战争在结束。这是迄今为止成本最低、见效最快的「增产」方式。
至于这场戏会演多久，取决于伊朗、内塔尼亚胡，和特朗普三方的耐心谁先耗尽。
下一篇，我们来聊：油价和美国通胀，到底是谁拉着谁？
© 2026 Author: HTMM. 本文采用 CC BY 4.0 授权
WTI crude dropped 5.5% in a single day.
Down to $98.47 per barrel. No surprise supply disruption. No OPEC production increase. The only thing that happened: Trump stood in front of reporters and said, “US-Iran negotiations have entered the final stage.”
An energy expert watched this unfold, sighed, and offered a carefully chosen observation: “You can say what you want about US President Donald Trump, but you have to admit — he’s very good at persuading the oil market.”
“Persuading” is a polite way to put it.
One Sentence, 5.5%
To understand this, you need to understand the relationship between the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz.
About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through that narrow waterway. Iran sits right alongside it. Whenever US-Iran tensions escalate, the first instinct of oil traders is: could the strait be blocked? Could supply be disrupted? Prices rise immediately. And when there’s a peace signal — they fall.
The logic is simple enough. The problem is, Trump had already used the words “final stage” several days in a row.
Some in the market took it seriously and bought in. Others just laughed — “how many times has he said this now?” Hedge fund short positions had already climbed to ten-year highs, meaning professional players were actually betting this drama would run much longer.
But oil still dropped 5.5%. That day, 26 vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz — more than usual — signaling that supply fears were easing.
Trump didn’t add a single barrel of actual oil production. He just talked.
Why Does He Want Lower Oil Prices?
In 2026, inflation is the hottest potato left over from Biden’s tenure — and the single biggest threat to Trump’s political legitimacy.
The connection between oil prices and inflation has been covered in earlier pieces. The short version: oil up, gas expensive, transport expensive, everything expensive, inflation number goes up, approval rating goes down.
So for Trump, pushing oil prices lower isn’t just economic policy — it’s political survival.
The problem is, he doesn’t have many cards to play.
OPEC isn’t listening. The Saudi crown prince has already done the math: high oil prices mean more revenue, so why take instructions from Washington? American shale producers aren’t cooperating either — as we covered last time, they’d rather pocket the windfall through dividends and buybacks than launch another drilling surge. Biden tried going to Riyadh and came back empty-handed. Trump faces the same wall.
So when actual production can’t be increased, what’s left?
Manage expectations.
Geopolitics: The Cheapest Production Tool Available
Oil futures markets have a particular feature: they don’t just trade today’s oil — they trade judgments about future supply. If you can convince the market that war risk is declining, prices fall. No additional barrel required.
Late March: Trump announced he was delaying military strikes against Iran. That day, oil prices and Treasury prices both rose — the market exhaled, safe-haven demand cooled.
May: Trump releases “negotiations entering the final stage.” WTI drops 5.5% in a single session.
Two moves, no actual production change, oil prices knocked lower both times. This is what “persuading the market” really means: substitute diplomatic narrative for real supply, and engineer a “virtual production increase” at minimal cost.
But Netanyahu Disagrees
The story doesn’t end there. While Trump is pushing for lower oil prices and a negotiated exit, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is pulling in the opposite direction.
The two had what was described as an “intense phone call” on May 20th. The disagreement is simple: Trump wants a nuclear deal and a quick end to an expensive conflict. Netanyahu wants to resume military operations against Iran — because for Israel, Iran is an existential threat, and negotiation looks like appeasement.
Trump told reporters afterward: “Netanyahu will do what I want him to do on Iran.”
That’s what he said. Iran’s Foreign Ministry responded that Tehran would continue negotiations “with strong and well-founded mistrust.” Iran wants its frozen overseas assets unfrozen, an end to what it calls “maritime harassment” of its ships, and a halt to regional hostilities. Without real movement on any of these, talks can collapse at any moment.
If they do, Hormuz risk comes roaring back, oil prices spike again, and whatever Trump pushed down with his words will cost far more to suppress the second time.
How Long Can This Last?
The market is already applying a discount. Hedge fund short positions sitting at ten-year highs means professional money is betting: this show won’t run long.
The data supports the skepticism. US 10-year Treasury yields only fell 9 basis points that day, and the Fed’s hawkish meeting minutes locked in roughly 75% probability of rate hikes in 2026 — the bond market’s inflation anxiety didn’t dissolve because oil had one good day.
Energy experts’ verdict: “Without a substantive agreement in place, the window for suppressing oil prices lasts at most a few weeks.”
In other words: Trump’s mouth can outrun the market, but it can’t outrun reality forever.
Oil prices aren’t a market problem — they’re a political problem. We established that in earlier pieces.
Trump has simply applied that logic more nakedly than anyone before him. He doesn’t need to produce more oil. He just needs the market to believe the war is ending. It’s the lowest-cost, fastest-acting “production increase” available.
How long the performance continues depends on whose patience runs out first — Iran’s, Netanyahu’s, or Trump’s.
Next: oil prices and US inflation. Which one is pulling the other?
© 2026 Author: HTMM. Licensed under CC BY 4.0
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